The Greater Phoenix real estate market is showing a mixed but dynamic performance as we move through summer 2025. While overall sales volumes have slightly decreased compared to last year, certain price segments are surging, and luxury properties continue to attract strong demand.
Year-over-Year sales trends – July 2024 vs. July 2025
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Total sales dipped slightly from 5,759 to 5,722 (–0.6%).
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Under $300K homes saw a modest increase (+2.1%), while $300K–$400K dropped by 5.8%.
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Luxury market strength: $1.5M–$2M sales surged +19.8%, $2M–$3M rose +3.1%, and properties over $3M increased +7.8%.
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Mid-range properties ($500K–$800K) remained relatively stable, posting only slight declines.
Price Appreciation by Range – July 2025
While the overall market saw a 0.4% decline in $/SF compared to July 2024, certain segments performed better:
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Strongest appreciation: Over $3M (+8.4%) and $1.5M–$2M (+1.8%).
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Mild declines: Most affordable ranges experienced price per square foot drops between –1% and –2.6%.
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The $800K–$1M range was stable, up just +0.5%.
Month-to-Month – June 2025 vs. July 2025
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Sales volume eased from 5,448 in June to 5,722 in July (–0.6%).
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Luxury segments continued momentum, but affordable homes under $400K slowed slightly from their June pace.
Market Balance
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Paradise Valley remains the hottest seller’s market.
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Other strong seller markets: Chandler, Fountain Hills, and Anthem.
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Phoenix, Mesa, and Scottsdale sit in balanced market territory, offering opportunities for both buyers and sellers.
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Areas like Buckeye, Maricopa, and Surprise remain buyer-friendly.
Supply & Demand
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Under contract listings are up +2.2% year-over-year.
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Active supply is significantly higher, up +34.2% from last year, giving buyers more options and potentially easing bidding wars.
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This increased supply may keep appreciation moderate for the remainder of 2025.
Inflation & Local Economics
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U.S. inflation: +2.7% in June 2025
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Phoenix inflation: +0.2%, supporting affordability relative to national trends.
Key Takeaways for Buyers & Sellers
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Buyers: More inventory means more negotiating power, especially in balanced and buyer’s markets like Mesa, Gilbert, and Buckeye.
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Sellers: Luxury homes are outperforming in appreciation and demand. Proper pricing and presentation remain critical.
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Investors: Slower appreciation in the under $600K range may open the door to long-term value buys.
Thinking about buying or selling in Phoenix metropolitan area?
As a bilingual (French & English) broker/owner with years of experience in the Greater Phoenix market, I can help you navigate shifting trends and maximize your results.
📞 Contact Arnaud Lavigne, AGL Real Estate – Your local real estate expert with an international touch.
